The business forecasting deal: exposing myths, eliminating bad practices, providing practical solutions

There are many books that discuss statistical forecasting modeling; this bookis not one of them. This book provides a practical approach for the nonstatistical problems that forecasters face (e.g., what needs to be forecasted, how often a forecast should take place, what is volatility, and problems in business forecasting). The tentative contents is: Chapter 1: Fundamental Issues in Business Forecasting, Forecasting Contest, Basic Principles, Definition of Demand, What to Forecast?, What Accuracy Is Required?, The Naïve Forecast, The Politics of Forecasting, What Management Must Know about Forecasting Chapter 2: The Problems of Business Forecasting, Demand Volatility, Performance MeasurementChapter 3: Alternative Approaches to the Forecasting Problem, Limitations of the Statistical Approach, Collaborative Approach, Supply Chain Engineering Approach, Proactive Collaboration, Pruning Approach Chapter 4: Forecast Value Added Analysis, What Is FVA, The Naïve Forecast, Why Is FVA Important, FVA Analysis: Step-by-Step, Further Applications of FVA, Case Studies, Lean Approach to Forecasting Chapter 5: Worst Practices in the Business Forecasting: Mechanics,Model Overfitting and Pick-Best Selection, Confusing Model Fit with Forecast Accuracy, Accuracy Expectations and Performance Goals, Failure to Use a Naïve Mode or Assess FVA, Forecasting Hierarchies, Outlier handling Chapter 6: WorstPractices in Business Forecasting: Process and Practices, The Politics of Forecasting, Blaming the Forecast, Adding Variation to Demand, Evangelical Forecasting, Over-investing in Forecasting, Performance Measurement and Reporting, Software Selection, Editorial Comment: Accuracy vs. Effort Chapter 7: PracticalFirst Steps Chapter 8: The Aphorisms of Business Forecasting

• ISBN: 978-0-470-57443-0
• Editorial: John Wiley & Sons
• Encuadernacion: Cartoné
• Páginas: 272
• Fecha Publicación: 21/06/2010
• Nº Volúmenes: 1
• Idioma: Inglés